Category Archives: Okategoriserade

Är det möjligt att förutsäga hur många elever som ska äta lunch?

Det uppskattas av livsmedelsverket att ungefär hälften av alla luncher som serveras i Sverige görs inom ramen för offentliga måltider. Skolan utgör en stor andel av dessa luncher, vilket kommer sig av en lagstiftad rättighet som möjliggör för elever att kostnadsfritt få ett mål mat varje skoldag.

Foto: Härnösand kommun

I och med att det är en rättighet att få lunch är det en utmaning för köken att försöka balansera hur mycket som ska lagas, då inte alla elever (av olika anledningar) dyker upp och överskottet kastas. I artikeln “Potential for using guest attendance forecasting in Swedish public catering to reduce overcatering” undersöktes det vilken potential olika slags metoder för att göra prognos över närvaro kan hjälpa köken i att bättre planera tillgång och efterfrågan och på så sätt indirekt minska matsvinnet. Nästa steg är att testa prognosverktygen i samband med olika matsvinnsmätningar för att se om prognoserna ger önskad effekt.

The article has been published open access in the journal Sustainable Production and Consumption.
Malefors, C.; Strid, I.; Hansson, P-A; Eriksson, M. Potential for using guest attendance forecasting in Swedish public catering to reduce overcatering. Sustainable Production and Consumption

Links between Food Waste and Resilience

We explored the links between food waste and food system resilience in a recently published paper in Ecosystem Services Journal.

Much food is wasted because the actors in supply chains seek to improve their own resilience – so they overplant, over-order or overbuy food. This leads to “unnecessary” emissions & resource use, undermining the long-term resilience of the system as a whole.

But many synergistic actions are possible that both reduce waste and improve resilience. The more resilient actors are, the less they need to over-buy and over-produce.

In the paper we created a ‘system map’ and a long-list of food waste reduction interventions. We then assessed each intervention on it positive or negative effects on different aspects of resilience, such as redundancy, flexibility and connectivity.

Through this process we identified synergistic interventions, notably improved storage, improved food preparation to increase shelf-life, increased use of long-life products, equal sharing of risk along the supply chain and improved connectivity and gave policy recommendations on how to promote to improve both short and long-term food-system resilience through reduced food waste.

The paper is thus a combination of academic research at SLU and experiences of myself and colleagues working on food waste as practitioners at WRAP.

The article has been published open access in Ecosystem Services:
Bajželj, B., Quested, T.E., Röös, E., Swannell, R.P.J., 2020. The Role of Reducing Food Waste for Resilient Food Systems. Ecosyst. Serv.

We need ambitious role of agriculture in climate mitigation

Last week I participated in a roundtable discussion on the draft National Energy and Climate Plan in my home country, Slovenia (via a video-link).

Slovenia must prepare a plan on reducing its GHG emissions to 2030, same as other EU countries. I was invited to comment on the plans for the agriculture sector.

Foto: Nejc Paznik

Currently, agriculture contributes to about 10% of Slovenian territorial GHG emissions. The large majority is from the livestock sector, particularly through enteric fermentation, as ruminant production is one of the few sectors where Slovenia is self-sufficient, some years even a net exporter. The self-sufficiency in vegetables, fruits and grains is much lower (less than 50%) and has been steadily decreasing over the decades.

The draft version of the plan puts forward interventions such as increasing livestock production efficiency through improved feed, and selective breading to reduce methane emissions from ruminants. A very similar list of actions be found in other countries older climate plans (for example, the UK’s 5th Carbon budget). However in the UK it was estimated that these same interventions could reduce the emissions by 15-20%, while in Slovenia, the authors thought that they would only reduce them by 1%.

The authors highlighted Slovenia’s agricultural uniqueness related to hilly topography and small farm size. While it is true that these represent unique challenges, they do not mean changing the sector in the next 10 year is impossible.

The necessity of increased production of beef should be questioned, as the demand for beef is already projected to reduce across the EU in the timeframe of the plan. It would be wise for Slovenia to prepare its livestock sector for a downturn in demand, and consider how they could help farmers in reducing livestock production quantity without losing their incomes; and where geographically that makes most sense; For example, by encouraging them to focus on quality or, especially on the flat land, producing something else.

Some nervousness in planned reduction of the ‘last sector’ where Slovenia is self-sufficient can be understood; but on the other hand this self-sufficiency is already a bit of an illusion, as the livestock sector relies on protein feed (soya) imports from Brazil.

Even without including any measures aimed at rebalancing plant-based and animal-based agriculture, many more interventions are possible but have been overlooked, such as using cover-crops in the winter (which reduce the need for fertiliser and can sequester carbon in soils; as well as increase the albedo in the absence of snow cover), improved manure management, use of biochar, improved energy efficiency on farms, support for horticulture sector to adapt to climate change already happening, and the protection and restoration of peat soils.

And these are just a few examples. The IPCC Special Report on Land has a good list of over 40 response options on page 60 of the Technical Report, and one would expect EU countries to carefully consider each one of those options for inclusions into their climate plans.

Young climate activists, who organised this roundtable, were questioning how Slovenia can justify putting forward a plan to reduce the overall territorial GHG emissions by only 36% until 2030 (agricultural emissions by only 1%), when a 60% reduction is needed to keep it in line with 1.5°C target.

The plan’s authors argued that they made the plan they felt was realistic, so as to increase the chance of it actually being implemented, and that it could be revised to be more ambitious in one of the planned revisions (however it cannot legally be made less ambitious).

And that is where I feel another dilemma lies; should the policy commitments only be made on the basis of proven, existing interventions? Or should such policies send clear signals about where the society is headed, so that the corresponding interventions can be developed and invested in?

In other words, should the policy follow, or lead?